Everything derives from two dice = 36 equally likely combinations. True odds is the fair payout where neither side has an edge — the benchmark for any street bet. Anyone offering less is taking the edge.
| Result | Rolls | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Win instantly | 7, 11 | 22.2% |
| Lose instantly (craps) | 2, 3, 12 | 11.1% |
| Set a point | 4–6, 8–10 | 66.7% |
| Total | Ways | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 2.78% |
| 3 | 2 | 5.56% |
| 4 | 3 | 8.33% |
| 5 | 4 | 11.11% |
| 6 | 5 | 13.89% |
| 7 | 6 | 16.67% |
| 8 | 5 | 13.89% |
| 9 | 4 | 11.11% |
| 10 | 3 | 8.33% |
| 11 | 2 | 5.56% |
| 12 | 1 | 2.78% |
7 is the most common roll — the pivot the whole game turns on.
| Point | Ways | True odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4 or 10 | 3 | 2 : 1 |
| 5 or 9 | 4 | 3 : 2 |
| 6 or 8 | 5 | 6 : 5 |
Wins if the point rolls before a 7. Odds = point's ways : 7's six ways.
| Bet | Wins on | True odds |
|---|---|---|
| Snake eyes | 2 | 35 : 1 |
| Boxcars | 12 | 35 : 1 |
| Ace-deuce | 3 | 17 : 1 |
| Yo | 11 | 17 : 1 |
| Any craps | 2, 3, 12 | 8 : 1 |
| Any seven | 7 | 5 : 1 |
Settled on the very next roll. Odds = ways to lose : ways to win.
| Bet | Win | Lose on | True odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard 4 | 2-2 | easy 4 / 7 | 8 : 1 |
| Hard 10 | 5-5 | easy 10 / 7 | 8 : 1 |
| Hard 6 | 3-3 | easy 6 / 7 | 10 : 1 |
| Hard 8 | 4-4 | easy 8 / 7 | 10 : 1 |
Must roll as a pair before the number is made the easy way or a 7 shows. (A casino pays only 7:1 / 9:1 here — an 11% / 9% edge.)
The shooter wins a straight pass bet 244/495 of the time. An even-money fade against the shooter therefore holds a razor-thin 0.71% edge — the fairest bet in the game. The money is made (or lost) on the mispriced prop & hardway bets above.
Rule of thumb: if someone offers less than the True odds column, the difference is their profit margin. Snake eyes at “30:1” instead of 35:1, or a hard 8 at “8:1” instead of 9:1, is exactly how the house edge gets built in.